the build trap

Most digital product creators skip validation and go straight to building. Two weeks later they have a finished product and zero buyers. Use this framework before you spend a single hour creating.

the three numbers you need

  1. Monthly search volume — how many people search for this type of product per month?
  2. Competitive density — how many similar products exist and what are their ratings?
  3. Conversion rate × price — realistic sales volume given your platform and visibility.

rough roi formula

Monthly Revenue = (Monthly Views × 0.01) × Price
Break-even Time = Build Hours × Hourly Rate ÷ Monthly Revenue

A 0.5%–2% conversion rate on marketplace traffic is typical. Start conservative at 0.5%.

validation shortcuts

  • Check Etsy bestseller lists — if the top 10 have 100+ reviews, demand is proven
  • Search Gumroad by keyword — look at discovery page ranking of similar products
  • Check the subreddit — if people are asking for it in r/ecommerce or r/shopify, they'd buy it